Apr 28, 2010

DAX-Elliott wave update

       Well, the picture doesn't seem as bearish as all the bears wish (short term I am bear too).
The chart below shows my primary count, which was relabeled a little. I am just trying to fit the labels to one incomplete (to me) pattern. At other hand on daily time frame the market tries to produce reversal candle from todays low (6023). One more reason, which makes me feel little confused is the full moon cycle. According to the moon calendar today 28/4/10  is the full moon. According to my 14 months research about the connection between the moon and the stock market reminds me that todays moon influence could kick off the  market (indexes) higher. That is a fact every time, when the full moon occurs .The chart's look confuses even me. Next time I promise neater charts looking.

Apr 26, 2010

DAX - Elliott wave update

  DAX didn't get support in last few days heights.STOXX50, AEX, FTSE100 etc. denied to follow their European brother. That usually means trend change or correction in the current time frame. According to the wave count (5)th wave is not complete yet. Most acceptable price level for reverse looks around 6480 level. 

Apr 20, 2010

Gold - Elliott Wave Update - Shine Time

              By the yesterdays closing price, the spot gold produced reversed candle and confirmed its $1123.60 low. That was very close to the low $1120 I expected in my last post . The resistance at $1145.80 is broken already.  
              Thus I have to prepare for the next target at $1208. 

Meantime the US indexes are ready for new high.

Apr 19, 2010

Disastrous eruptions

         Volcanic eruptions, the Goldman Sachs scandal and the Google figures – what else guys?  Which accident  is not quoted to give reasons for a sell off and to oracle the new system crash. It’s amusing to see the whole media pack panting behind thousands of reasons for tops or bottoms.
This is a new bull market, not bear market correction, this time is different- says the media…...No way..... That was really fundamental.

         The real reason is that S&P 500 reached its first preferred exhaustion target (1215) last week, causing thus a violent counter reaction. That was due to the Fibonacci sequence, Wave count ant Gann timing angles. That rise is based on the supposition that the financial markets as well as our lives, our decisions, simply our entire environment go through cycles which can be determined in advance - the same old story….

        Let's take a snapshot at EUR/USD picture. According to the current wave count the pair has made very clear five waves dip. As most of the EW followers know we need to reckon on corrective pull back, testing one or few of the main Fibonacci levels on the chart below.
       Again,  the EURO guess takes off for a while. What will the fundamentals say about this? Due to the disastrous picture? What's the sense?

Apr 16, 2010

SPX - Is this a bull market?

The short answer is YES. The bull market is a fact. Fact is also that I can't count any five wave impulse up since 03/06/09 without breaking the main Elliott Wave Principle Rules.
 I would like to focus on the topic which course the American stock market is going to adopt and to concentrate upon the price target, which is expected in April. 
The chart below shows one of my both wave counts and potential short term price and time targets.
Next chart below is the alternative one, where I relabeled few highs and lows. But however, the mid wave count  doesn't matter in this case, more important is the pattern 

AAII Sentiment Survey gives support to my short term bearish bias. 
This week's survey saw bullish sentiment rise to 48.5%, below its long-term average of 38.9%. 
Short term Average:
Bullish 48.5%
up 5.6

Neutral 21.8%
down 5
Bearish 29.7%
Long-Term Average:
                                                                  Bullish: 39%
                                                                  Neutral: 31%
                                                                  Bearish: 30%
Check this out -mega extreme indicator (Put/Call Ratio)levels

Apr 15, 2010

S&P 500

My short term bearish bias is getting extreme. Target  around 1243-based on the current count. If not correct- max 1215. 

Later I will put on air daily SPX chart.


                           STOXX50I is already in the targetzone of it's H&S target.

 In the last update I counted 5 waves down and supposed brief upward correction, and down again. Unfortunately it was really "five", but "C" wave of an "expanded flat".  You know......, the market is always right and never likes to make the things easy for anyone. I was in the trap as well, but smell it earlier and covered my short without profit.

Apr 13, 2010

Gold - Elliott Wave Update

                 Since my last update I am bull on Gold . By the last week closing price, the gold confirmed its 1320 main target. On weekly as well as on monthly basis, it is a clear BUY for me.
In February the precious metal produced a reversal candle on daily base, confirming a significant low ($1044  per ounce). If the price continues up, chasing that potential (y) wave, should paint just one more zig-zag, or any complex completing Y of (B) wave of potential "expanded flat". 
             The price now is in the resistance zone ($1163  per ounce) and we will have to reckon on a stronger retracement to around $1120 and get the ideal buy entry for $1320 target, which could happen late July or beg. of August 2010.  

Apr 9, 2010

Trading Psychology, Plan & Risk Management

Trading Psychology

Covers trading psychology and how the optimum mindset for Forex traders involves having a trade plan and managing risk.

For many Forex traders, their trading psychology and mindset will ultimately determine the success of their forex trading business. In fact, learning how to manage your emotions while trading and training your responses to various trading situations is a very important aspect of maturing as a trader. Many rogue traders that caused huge bank Forex losses failed to manage their trading psychology well.

The primary emotions that tend arise when trading Forex includes fear, greed and hope.
Secondary emotional responses might include anger, frustration and elation. No matter what emotion arises for you when trading, it makes sense to have an objective trade plan worked out in advance that helps you manage them for optimal success.

Having a Trade Plan

Because of the volatility often seen in the Forex market, a trader without a sound money management component to their trading plan could be likened to a skydiver without a parachute. In the event of a string of losing trades, the trader’s account balance will drop much like the ill-fated skydiver without the benefit of a parachute to break the fall.

A large percentage of people that begin trading in the forex market fail mainly because of lack of discipline and poor money management. Without knowing how to deal with losing trades, many novice traders start “chasing money out the door” by committing a range of typical money management mistakes. Eventually they can end up losing a lot of money, perhaps even their whole trading account.

Nevertheless, having a good trading plan only comprises one part of the overall trading game. Knowing what to do when the going gets tough will eventually distinguish a successful trader from the other high percentage of unsuccessful forex market participants.

Managing Forex Trading Risk Effectively

Generally, Forex traders will risk between 1% and 5% of their trading account’s value on any given trade. Also, by always risking the same percentage, the trader’s trade size will tend to grow along with the equity in their account. 

In order to effectively trade with stops, the trader would do well to examine technical indicators and other trading signals and to place stop-loss orders accordingly, thereby maintaining a more objective mindset when trading.

Furthermore, trading involves making both profitable and unprofitable trades, and knowing how to manage emotions that arises from the unprofitable trades tends to matter more. When trading profitably, the money tends to take care of itself, but when a trader encounters a series of losing trades, having an objective exit strategy and knowing when not to trade could save the account from ruin.

Basically, having an optimal trading mindset that includes sound money management principles is not only essential for Forex traders to learn and practice, but can benefit just about any business. In fact, even people that do not trade at all can often profit considerably from learning how to manage their money better.

Once that important element gets taken care of, the next thing to do involves finding the best forex broker that suits your needs.

Apr 8, 2010

S&P 500 Timid trend line breaking

According to my EW count there are five impulse waves already completed.

Apr 7, 2010

DAX - Elliott wave update

Since my last update, DAX and most of the world indexes decided to play another impulse up. That probably means one more "zig-zag". The price have already met 423.6% of a 1 wave, and 261.8% of the I wave, moving in very sharp and tight trend channel. Perfect Fibonacci sequence in play. So, the time and place for deeper pull back probably came already. We just need to see short confirmation. As I said: trading overbought or oversold market without confirmation is looking for trouble.
I attach PUT/CALL Ratio chart as well, where the indicator dropped to new significant low. It means sell off soon.
Probably Ben will produce last spike today.

Apr 6, 2010

S&P 500 Final Rally

Here we go again "hungry for the market" after brief holiday(s).
 The market action is on the way to complete the last of the last wave 5 of the (a) wave of the potential "zig-zag". The time gap for the first obvious target is going to close next week probably. Possible targets 1200 or 1215 max - and then down for (b) wave.