Sep 14, 2011


                  The March 2009 to May/July 2011 bull market unfolded in five quite clear waves as well as SPX and INDU. The one can count these waves as five Primary waves, expecting this bull market off the Mar.09 Supercycle low to be of a Cycle wave degree.

                  The recent two year bull market I have currently labeled is Cycle wave [1]. It should be followed by a Cycle wave [2] as a bear market. Recently this bear market has unfolded its first A wave and the second B wave hopefully. We should expect one more bear move to unfold as wave C to complete the Elliott Wave pattern called “zig-zag”.

                  Fibonacci relationships suggest a potential  low at three specific areas: 38.2% retracement at 2262, 50.0% retracement at 2071and 61.8% retracement at 1880. Currently I am expecting next move to 2100 support area to unfold next few months. I can confirm bull market in correction on weekly base.

                  The current downtrend started in early July at 2879. I can count the current wave A as completed, because it contains five clear impulsive waves. I have labeled B wave as completed because it has already corrected 50.0% of A wave, but it have may not finished yet.

                       What should follow next is a preferable rally as Primary C wave. Potential target is the 2070 support zone.
             We shouldn’t consider any bullish move as a resuming the long term bull trend until breaking the resistance area 2600-2660, and closing above it on daily base.