Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DJIA. Show all posts

Dec 20, 2009

DJIA - update. Correction of the correction.

              I call "correction of the correction" all that rally since 6th of  March 2009 till now.
And now I have a few reasons to expect downside move, which is correction of the upper  "correction of the correction".
                                                 I think became too complicated.

  1. First one is a huge divergence to many indicators and price movement on daily base MACD,RSI, etc. 
  2. All that straight rally hasn't got it's big enough correction  ( 06/11/2009-07/08/209)
  3.  The bulls advanced to 52.2% from 48.4% a week ago. That is the most long-term optimism we’ve seen since December 2007, when their number was retreating from 62.0% shown at that October’s all-time market high. A year later at the first bear market lows the bulls had slipped to just 22.2%.         Advisors Sentiment Table
    Date
    DJIA
    S&P 500
    Bullish
    Advisors %

    Bearish
    Advisors %

    Correction
    Advisors %

    Tue Dec 15, 2009
    10,501.05
    1,114.11
    52.20
    16.70
    31.10
    Tue Dec 8, 2009
    10,285.97
    1,091.94
    48.40
    16.50
    35.10
                  
  4. We are very close to end of  Fibonacci 3th cycle on the chart (orange dotted vertical line)  
  5. I think we have 5 impulsive waves down.

                                                                       To many reasons.

Dec 18, 2009

DJIA - Santa Rally might over.


                It's majesty-the market make us all dump heads almost all the time.Now I feel like that, trying to predict next Dow move. My both charts review two different directions. I know that you have seen that movie (the price will go up or down), but the current tape is very unclear (for me).
                        That's why I released two counts.

               Firs one shows completed (5) wave, which is truncated after completed "expanded triangle", and marks the end of (Y) of double zig-zag.
The first leg down is underway and (V) of 1 is still incomplete. If the price breaks 10 235 key low will confirm that count.




            
               Second one shows (I) up after completed "expanded triangle  and very deep pull back as wave (II) as "zig-zag".
If the price breaks 10 235 low will eliminate this count.




I bet on the first chart.

Good luck !!!






Dec 11, 2009

DJIA- Peak rally- short term

                                  
                                        Have we made a truncated top?, I still don' know .no,no.no

                 I am not really sure about that wave count until the opposite is proven by the price paintings.

                                          



                            

I still wait for my fifth wave (5) to extend little higher to complete the pattern (W,X,Y) i have labeled. Also according to  Fobonacci time instrument, the reversal moment is very close, nearly 21-22 Dec.2009.
Interesting point of view comes from a colleague ewaver. Filipe Miguel has put all these, nearly 1 month SPX's squiggles in a frame,called "Diamond".The "diamond" is  trend reversal  formation, which means that the price will drop down early next week, which is very possible too. He made very sharp forecast about EUR/USD last week.
 

Dec 9, 2009

DJIA - update

  


                                                           The triangle pattern looks completed.
                                             Get ready for the X-mas rally until something goes wrong :)



Good luck!

DJIA - update (last call for the bulls)

                                                     
                                             Hello wavers,
             I've got an important info to share with you today.


            According to Investors intelligence advisors sentiment, this week’s data included a new twelve year high for the advisors projecting a correction, along with lower readings for both the bulls and the bears. As things stand, the indexes continue to bet with 2009 highs. Pullbacks last week was brief and followed quickly by new buying. However, I have noted a narrowing of the participation.
        
            The bulls were down slightly to 50.0% after last week’s 50.6% reading, which equaled their September high. Both are still up nicely from the start of November, when a market pullback saw their drop to 44.4%. The advisors continue to show a major sentiment shift from a year ago when the bulls were just 22.2%. That was almost a twenty-year low going back to 15-Nov-88 when the bulls were 21.1%.The bears have left very fewThey were just 16.7%down from 17.6% the previous week and 26.7% the first week of November. That is the least bears since 13-Jun-03 when we counted them at 16.1%.
             
            The long-term bears are at their lowest level in over six years, while the short-term bears (those for a correction) are at their highest level in over twelve years - a very unusual pattern, according to them. The bulls are also well below where they were at the market peak in October 2007. This shows there are not a lot of bulls out there. But there are also many advisors who would like to become bulls if the market pulls back. As the markets often confounds expectations, I could see a year-end rally to new highs that could force the correction camp to capitulate and buy on strength. That, I think, could mark the top.
             
            The difference between the bulls and bears was 33.3%, up just 0.3% from last week and another bearish reading. Remember that last time we had such a large negative difference was in late 2007, just after the all-time high in the DJIA, pushing the  spread over 40%.


Date
DJIA
S&P 500
Bullish
Advisors %
Bearish
Advisors %
Correction
Advisors %
Tue Dec 8, 2009
10,390.11
1,103.25
48.40
16.50
35.10
Tue Dec 1, 2009
10,471.58
1,108.86
50.00
16.70
33.30
Tue Nov 24, 2009
10,433.71
1,105.65
50.60
17.60
31.80
Tue Nov 17, 2009
10,437.42
1,110.32
46.10
21.30
32.60
Tue Nov 10, 2009
10,246.97
1,093.01
44.40
26.70
28.90



  

My expectations are for higher prices after completing the "triangle pattern".

My longer term count :

                              


                               
Good trading to all.

Dec 8, 2009

DJIA - update

                                            

                                                            I still support my preferred count.




Good luck

Dec 6, 2009

DJIA - update

Hi wavers,
   I can offer two count :
   First one is preferred  
 As i can see, the market price moves in sideways wider & wider, and seem to form an "expanding triangle".
But the price needs to go little higher for (B)of the last [E] to deeper Fibonacci level 61.8%, and then dropping down to complete  the pattern with [E] wave of a triangle .If that happened i will expect rally up for  higher highs to complete (Y) wave of larger degree, which is not shown here.




My alternative count shows an "expanding flat" formation, which is completed.
I have labeled  1 wave up, which is completed as well. 2nd wave has formed an "expanding flat" and now higher wave 3 of (5) is expected to be formed.

These are the most well fitted possibilities I see.There are few more, but seem very complicated .








I still support that count of the bigger picture(daily)
.According to that labeling (5)th wave of a (Y) wave of double "zig-zag" doesn't look finished.The proportions are already 1:1(Y=W) by size, but i still wait for little more higher to complete the pattern.I expect 
that to occur around December 21-22nd  2009.   

Good luck!!!


Nov 24, 2009

DJIA - wave count





According to my count,  all short term bullish positioned traders should cover their positions.
I will cover my point of view  with some examples.
First one  shows my count, i changed at the last moment yesterday.

                             


Second one hsows how low is the daily volume. If tomorrows sessions make similar or lower volume, we should expect dropping  down shortly.
                             


The third chart shows us how the price has reached 50% of Fibonacci retracement of all downside move since October 2007.


On fourth  chart we see that wave (W) is equal to wave (Y) by size.


After all charts i can not confirm beginning of Primary wave 3, because i want to see more confirmations about it. But i think we have to expect short term bearish movement and want to see will  the support levels   resist i pointed. Later today i intend to post few more charts for European market probably , so be in touch.
Good luck!