Dec 6, 2012

S&P 500

      I suppose the last move down to correct at least 38.2% Fibo of this rally, which has started at 16-Nov-2012 and finished at 3-Dec-2012. 
I've labeled 1403.74 as minute A wave down, 1415.22 as minute wave B up, and would expect C wave down to unfold. I have labeled B wave as Expanded Flat. 

     Short term resistance remains 1415.22, and then 1424.81. Short term support remains 1397.57. If the price goes up from here and overcomes the resistance at 1424.81 I have to negate this count, in this case 1397.57 should be Minor wave 2.
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Happy trading!

Dec 5, 2012

NASDAQ100

There is short opportunity on NASDAQ100 in hourly chart. The Head and Shoulders figure is the very well known pattern from the Dow theory.  The target should be around 2628 level. I also expect C wave to unfold and fill 100 % of A wave which is somewhere arround these levels (2632). A wave starts at 2698.54 and marks short term top.



Dec 22, 2011

DAX

The EU market is upside oriented today as well. I can suggest to play this bullish strategy as long as the market does not go below 5773. I expect a direct rise to 6062. Buy around to 5890 to play a rise to 6062. The invalidation level  is at 5773.
                                                                      Good luck#

EUR/USD

An imediate drop is expected on the forex market. The market is downside oriented today. It's preferable to play this bearish scenario  as long as the market does not go above 1.3183, as I anticipate a direct drop atleast  to 1.2944. Sell close to 1.3133 to play a drop to 1.2944. The invalidation level of this trade idea is at 1.3183 levels. 
Good luck trading@


Nov 2, 2011

MRK - Merck & Co Inc.

                      Merk & Co Inc. has reliable fundamental parameters and technical patterns to be added to your portfolio.
  • Merck makes pharmaceutical products to treat conditions in a number of therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular disease, asthma, infections, and osteoporosis. The company also has a substantial vaccine business, with treatments to prevent hepatitis B and pediatric diseases as well as HPV and shingles. Following the Schering acquisition, about 45% of the company's sales are generated in the United States
  • Merck remains in strong financial health, even with the additional $8.5 billion in debt needed for the Schering acquisition. We expect the combined company will generate a free cash flow of approximately $12 billion in 2011.
  • Merck's new products during the last few years have helped to offset recent patent losses, Januvia for diabetes and Isentress for HIV.
  • Merck's efforts to develop a reliable late-stage pipeline have yielded questionable results. The Food and Drug Administration denied Merck approval for cholesterol drug Tredaptive (formerly Cordaptive) in early 2008.
  • Deciding not to wait for new internal pipeline drugs, Merck significantly strengthened its operations by acquiring Schering-Plough for about $40 billion. Schering brings in a very strong pipeline of late-stage drugs with blockbuster potential and faces only limited patent losses during the next few years.

                                           Current Valuation



 MRK


MRKIndustry AvgS&P 500MRK 5Y Avg*
*Price/Cash Flow uses 3-year average.




             Risk
  • Merck's near-term risk largely centers on market acceptance of new products. Like all pharmaceutical companies, Merck faces regulatory risk from the FDA. Product delays or nonapprovals could hurt the stock. Also, the growing power of managed care and a more price-sensitive U.S. government may reduce Merck's pricing power. 
        Bulls say
  • New product launches of Isentress and Januvia leaped to a strong start, and delays of competing drugs have given Merck a leg up in maintaining market leadership
  • Restructuring efforts should reduce costs and improve margins over the long term, helping to offset the patent expirations of high-margin products.
  • The acquisition of Schering enables Merck to potentially achieve $3.5 billion in annual cost-saving synergies by 2011.
        Bears say
  • Merck faces the loss of its largest sales contributo when the 2012 patent on Singulair expires.
  • Poor trial results from a key Schering pipeline product called TRA casts a cloud of increased uncertainty over the other pipeline products acquired in the Schering acquisition.  
  • Poor results from the Enhance study combined with increased generic statin competition could reduce the market potential for Vytorin and Zetia.


Technical overview 

  •          The current price action has a lateral track with slightly down side bias. I still can't say this share has a BUY signal. I need to see overcoming the $37.65  resistance first and closing above the upper channel line.

Good luck trading!








Price/Earnings37.016.212.540.7





Price/Book1.92.31.83.9





Price/Sales2.32.51.13.5





Price/Cash Flow10.09.28.114.9





Dividend Yield %4.43.82.53.9





Price/Fair Value0.7