DJIA - HAPPY BIRTHDAY (1 YEAR BULL TREND)

Probably hurts.

        
          I view the bull action as likely a final move before a correction. Technically, the price is overbought in 1 to 4 hour time frames, and DJIA is squeezing every ounce from the bears.
         Now the most likely scenario is for a rally to continue in today's session little more higher - around 10 600, completing (C) wave of a (Y).  Then should be followed by a down turn phase.     

                                       
                  The Daily Index Sentiment is pitching into the extremes again.

Put/call ratio 5 day MA crossed down, supporting my bearish expectations. 

Let the force be with you:)

DAX - Elliott wave update

The current up move (a) looks completed in 5 waves. I expect a brief action (b),  reaching 5 650 area, where is the red bear back test line. That action is also called correction of the correction  in the next upward move to new corrective high in next few weeks. I remain modestly short, and expect a lateral track for a few sessions.

Let the force be with you :)

THE GOLD RUSH

      Last month I was thinking about end of (B) wave of a potential "expanding flat", but last few weeks the price action put me in doubts. The main reason is that the downside move's wave structure looks corrective about now. I have labeled a corrective complex- W, X, Y, made of "zig – zags”. In addition February produced a reversal candle on daily base, confirming a significant low.

     As we see the Gold rebounded from the 1032 line-strongly and impressively. I do not  see anything bearish on the horizon about now. 

    If the price continues up, chasing that potential (C) wave, should paint just one more zig-zag, or any complex completing 'Y' wave. Then that count remains to be valid.

      If the upward move I expect paint an impulse 5, then the Grand picture would be totally different. It could form 5 waves of a larger degree.
     The tape now is a bit unclear as a wave structure, and I prefer to have little more data till the next update on spot Gold.

     The expectations are for new high to 1 252- 1 320.  The herd escalated with one more bull---me. 

Enjoy the video!

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.

I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 

I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.

Bullish	34.9%
Neutral	35.6%
Bearish	29.5%

PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.  

XAG/USD -Elliott wave count

The immediate pressure remains on the downside and we expect further decline twd 15.00. 5 wave impulsive pattern formed yesterday. I doubt a little the corrective move has finished already. However, a classical pattern has formed also ( head & shoulders), which propose the same target as the EWT suggests. Good luck!