Jul 27, 2010

DAX - 6352-Down behind my shoulder

In my last update about DAX I was expecting "expanded flat". The "flat occurred, but the"running"one-A,B,C.  It's not a secret that I am deadly bullish on daily to weekly base about some EU indexes including DAX, but expected little different pattern (expanded flat). 
As usual the market loves to make us look stupid- often. I still support my bullish bias, due to the strong daily and weekly signals. There is not much text to add to the current count. I reckon on small and brief pull back next one-two days to get the "long" path again.

Good luck!

Jul 25, 2010

SP500 - 1130 is obvious

The bullish tune last week wasn't surprise at all. Sometimes trading is easy, such as it was last week. This week shouldn't be surprising either. Fridays session produced strong buy weekly candle.

Next target will be the 1131 resistance where the price is going to make very important decision about the path for the next few months: to resume the long term trend or to fall into down swing. If we break 1131.23 could pick up the 1148 high, where the left shoulder's resistance is.

                                  According to the current count the "C" leg or 3th wave is still missing. 
Good luck!

Jul 24, 2010


Just wanted to share with you my observations about few EU indexes.

Jul 23, 2010

AEX - Elliott Wave Update

The European (Dutch) market looks bullish as well as the US one. As early as this week we'll see how strong the new rally really is. Friday performance already showed us that it doesn't seem to be the optimum. It retraced normally (healthy) at 61.8% Fibo, and as you see we are up again.
I've got to say that I'm not quite sure about the emerging pattern on daily base, but sure there is more room for the price to go up.

                                                                                                                     Some Dutch history
Dutch Expansion in the East IndiesImage via Wikipedia
Good luck!

Jul 22, 2010

EWI- Free week announcement

A pumpjack in TexasImage via Wikipedia
          While the Indexes make aggressive attempts for bear channel breaking, I will try to announce the EWI free week on Energy.
Where is going the petrol value?
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You can access EWI's intraday, daily, weekly and monthly forecasts from EWI's Energy Specialty Service right now through noon Eastern time Wednesday, July 28. This service is valued at $347/month, but you can get it FREE for one week only!
The timing couldn't be better because Crude Oil and Natural Gas are both approaching important junctures. Opportunity is calling. This unique event only lasts a short time, so don't delay! Just click the on the link below or the banner above the post. 
Learn more and get instant access to EWI's FreeWeek of Energy analysis and forecasts now -- before the opportunity ends for good.
You probably ask yourself : Why does that guy announces EWI services?     Simple-  EWI will credit me 3 bucks for each free subscription-generous donation :-) Thank you!
Some fundamental news in past tense :-) Oil edges above $77 on Europe, China optimism

Jul 20, 2010

SPX 500 Elliott Wave update

 Definitely  the short term picture looks bullish, even with the weak attempt to break the channel line. Anyway, this week is going to be interesting because we've got an impulse five up, which I labeled as "A" without any important resistance overcame. A short "a,b,c" correction is expected, which perhaps will try to test the previous 07/01 low. I think the price will calm down around 1035 before the next attempt to break the upper channel line.
                                                  chart updated 21/07
Good luck trading!

Jul 15, 2010

SUGAR- Elliott Wave Update

The sugar bulls seem to be still breathing. The price tested important support and bounced up successfully for new corrective high. Most likely the price will nest at $24.56 area and then will collapse for "C" wave of a "zig-zag". There are few evidence supporting that scenario :
  • The price will meet 61.8% of "A" wave.
  • There is 161.8% of the corrective (a) wave.
  • If we overcame 38.2% will see the right shoulder of  potential H&S pattern completed, and that zone in the bigger ellipse matches with the target roughly. 
  • See the circled bar in red.
                                                            Good luck trading!
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Jul 13, 2010


While the price moves on schedule I will share with you my med term point of view. Currently we are in a crossroad and I give equal % to each of all med. term scenarios below.
According to first one the price hits the upper channel line and bounces down directly for the H&S target.
On the chart below the price makes "zig-zag", breaking the channel, but stays under the 1131 resistance, and makes one more leg down testing the zone between the solid red lines, where the 161.8 % Fibo of "A" wave is. And then up again.
Here is shown dramatic 1131 resistance and trend channel penetration.The price action takes lateral truck for at least several months, and then up again for the bigger H&S target-1370.
I still can't count any impulsive wave since March 2009 low till April 2010 top without breaking the EWP rules.That suppose to be a complex correction. I don't want to freak you out, but despite that, I can't agree with the Flash Crash scenario yet. My long term bias is still bullish, just need to see deeper correction of the correction completed, before resuming the road to the ridge. Next couple a days I will nail my long term point of view picture on my blog's first page. From a timing point of view the trend should still be down into March 2011. 2010 should be bearish year according to Gann as well. So let the market decide where.
Good luck trading!

Jul 6, 2010

SP 500 cash index

Down sell target was reached, that had been prognosticated in my last post. Probably a week low was marked.We got the H&S pattern. The price slides down perfectly fit between the trend lines. Even the daily indicators don't look oversold. The things look simple.  It cannot be better. Now what? We should turn upwards now. The market needs a small and weak counter trend, filling the open gap noted on the chart below. One of the confirming things we have to look for is a reversal daily candle this week. It is maybe on place. The wave count looks proportionally completed. 
One thing is for sure: If we break the trend line downwards next few days the bear smell will spread out everywhere, and the very well known EWI flash begins, and my long term huge triangle scenario for the last few months fades out. 
I would like to add the bearish expectations chart according to AAII. The bearish bias among the investors rose up to 33 % last week. This level is very close to 7/09 35.6 %, when the price takes off again.

Jul 1, 2010


Now I think the expected rally for the EUROPEAN UNION began. Good luck!!!