Jul 6, 2010

SP 500 cash index

Down sell target was reached, that had been prognosticated in my last post. Probably a week low was marked.We got the H&S pattern. The price slides down perfectly fit between the trend lines. Even the daily indicators don't look oversold. The things look simple.  It cannot be better. Now what? We should turn upwards now. The market needs a small and weak counter trend, filling the open gap noted on the chart below. One of the confirming things we have to look for is a reversal daily candle this week. It is maybe on place. The wave count looks proportionally completed. 
One thing is for sure: If we break the trend line downwards next few days the bear smell will spread out everywhere, and the very well known EWI flash begins, and my long term huge triangle scenario for the last few months fades out. 
I would like to add the bearish expectations chart according to AAII. The bearish bias among the investors rose up to 33 % last week. This level is very close to 7/09 35.6 %, when the price takes off again.





2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Any possibility this wave end above 1131 as bigger 2?

Milen Kolev said...

Hi,
Yes, there is such a possibility in case the market paints 3 more waves down from here, completing bigger 5. That's why I left that count as an alt.one. If we make one more wave down and break the upper channel line,then we have to setup a new bullish count.
Thanks for the question