Apr 7, 2010

DAX - Elliott wave update

Since my last update, DAX and most of the world indexes decided to play another impulse up. That probably means one more "zig-zag". The price have already met 423.6% of a 1 wave, and 261.8% of the I wave, moving in very sharp and tight trend channel. Perfect Fibonacci sequence in play. So, the time and place for deeper pull back probably came already. We just need to see short confirmation. As I said: trading overbought or oversold market without confirmation is looking for trouble.
I attach PUT/CALL Ratio chart as well, where the indicator dropped to new significant low. It means sell off soon.
Probably Ben will produce last spike today.



Apr 6, 2010

S&P 500 Final Rally

Here we go again "hungry for the market" after brief holiday(s).
 The market action is on the way to complete the last of the last wave 5 of the (a) wave of the potential "zig-zag". The time gap for the first obvious target is going to close next week probably. Possible targets 1200 or 1215 max - and then down for (b) wave.


Mar 31, 2010

SP 500 - Law of nature

       I can't claim myself as a bear at heart.  I can't afford to be extreme bull or bear in these volatile markets, so we need to be very flexible, turning from bulls to bears and the opposite often.
       The current market is really overbought, but actually trading overbought or oversold market without confirmation is a really looking for trouble.
       I wonder what is the particular reason, which holds the price so high and so long. According to my EW count there are five impulse waves already completed. Gann's calculations showed  me Mar 26 2010 as a mid top. Full moon cycle (Mar 28 2010) freaking all, passed away. What left? Maybe the extreme and naked optimism. But as we know the market needs pure cash, not optimism. Yesterdays volume was only 0.9m, which is peanuts money.  What left? - only optimism.
        As we know, every movement in the market is the result of a natural low and a cause, which exists long before the effect takes place, and can be determined days, weeks, months and years in advance. The future is a repetition of the past. Every move is a result of action and reaction. There is nothing new under the sun.
        Again, the market never likes to make the things easy for anyone.

Probably today will be the reversal day for correction (reaction), keeping the price 1180.69, made in Mar 25 2010 as a mid top.
Good luck!

Mar 29, 2010

S&P 500 Bull's herd needs a break

        Please Bulls, don't offend because of the title, I am medium term Bull too. 
I can put my hand at my heart and say -this top is not P2 or B yet. 
        In March 24. 2010 I made diffident try to mix EWTheory & Gann Theory, and it was very close-1 day and 2.94 pts, as I mentioned taking the bottom made in Feb 05.2010 only. Then I also painted potential triangle for the next few months before the final bullish push. Probably it could be a different formation-corrective as well.
      Yesterday I made few more calculations. This time I took the Mar25.2010 and 1180.40 as a potential top, and got some results as dates and price levels. These levels perfectly fit to the Fibonacci -38.2% and 50.0% of the potential (a)  wave of the last "zig zag", which we should see next months. To tell you the truth, I am really curious to see the results. Can you imagine how powerful market weapon could be constructed, combining both theories? 


     P.S.- The green vertical lines are dates in April.

Mar 26, 2010

EUR/USD -Did the P.I.G.S. sink the EUR ?

            As you know, the Ewaves are usually aroused by the social mood. That inaugurate events in the world, and when the EUR down  trend began, still nobody was talking about fiscal problems in Greece, Portugal and other European countries. We still don’t know if these problems will end next weeks or not, but the pair EUR/USD very soon will complete very clear 5 waves downward, which are built for nearly five months. It was very serious decline due to hmmm....Do you think the P.I.G.S did it?  
          5 complete waves means, that the EUR is going to be kicked out by the green old buck for deeper retrace very soon. 
        See the current labeling I did: Technically two weeks ago I was doubting about the (V)th wave could happen (the current (iV) wave was labeled in my chart as "leading diagonal" of potential (a)  corrective wave). So, that (V) is already underway and I relabeled my count.
I have enclosed the whole data  I've got, and as you see the grand channel (since 1971) still holds the price between the lines. 
The potential target looks like 1EUR= 1$