Dec 25, 2010

SP 500

May this Christmas be so special that you never ever feel lonely and be surrounded by loved ones throughout. May this Christmas be bright and cheerful and may the New Year begin on a prosperous note.  Merry Christmas!

Dec 22, 2010


Since the last update about STOXX 50 I changed my expectations  generally. Since March 2009 I was counting it as a bullish correction. Now the situation seems  to me different.

 The index has declined 61.49% since 6/20/2007 to 3/09/2009. According to the Elliott Wave Principle this is very close to the deepest and important Fibonacci level(61.8)%, required for second wave retrace. Then 3 waves up until 2/11/2010, and then almost one year lateral track, probably accumulating the power for the 3th Primary wave. 
I've labeled the sideways structure as completed complex correction, finished in 8/25/2010. And then first Minor wave contains five overlapping waves, and forms typical leading diagonal. This pattern occurs usually in first of the third wave. 
The structure in four hours bars look impulsive as well, and we have five impulsive waves up, and 3 waves against the leading diagonal. 
Next resistance is 2902,39. Support  2632,89.
Most likely we are in the 3th Minor of the (1)st Intermediate of the 3th Primary. Most likely we are in long term bull market.
Next short term terget occurs 2982,48. Then 3197,48. 

Good luck trading

Dec 15, 2010

SP 500 Update

       The correction might begun during the yesterdays session. I still think, that we are in 1st minor of (5)th Intermadiate and wait for more significant pullback to label correct. 
There is one main question:  how deep will be the pullback? The well spreaded "flash crash" or just one step back, before the next two steps ahead, which is typical for the bull market. 
4 hour to daily charts show overbought and diverging conditions. 
The current pullback's depth will be very important for the market to show us HIS choise: 
to resume the uptrend, unfolding 2,3,4,5 of (5)th wave short to med term, or deeper retrace  beyond 1173? 

Next support down is the previous top 1226.78. If broken 1219.74 April top and 38.2 Fibonacci level of the current 1st wave is the next support.
Upwards 1246.75 and 1263.15.
Daily close above 1247 will be important buy signal from the current point.
Good luck trading!

Dec 9, 2010

SP 500

 Short term is expected 25-30 points pullback.
The night session registered new year short term top at 1236,97 and probably marks 1st minor of (5)th Intermadiate. This Elliott wave count appears on one very short term only. The five wave structure looks completed and wave 2 minor is underway.
Medium term - the bulls control the situation and there is more room upwards for the price to go. After brief few days pullback the Santa rally will resume. The next price magnet and important Gann angle influence  apears to be 1279 in the second half of January 2011, where the (5) intermediate will be completed.
Good luck trading!

Dec 8, 2010


Yesterdays session marked the pick of "i" of 5th wave. The expected pullback won't be deeper than 6760 probably.
Good luck trading!