DJIA - Elliott Wave update

 The corrections usually are the most boring part of the trading.

I am calling that FIGANNELL update, because it's all in.

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

DJIA on CFD - daily is still in the bullish zone( above 45 degree)

And the new setup.

DJIA - A sight from the ridge

              Probably some of you remember my post DJIA update-bullish signs  (Feb 10 2010), where I suggested scenario about the current picture. That scenario was totally different than the most preferred  in EW Sphere. The time is on the way to prove that lateral truck picture. 
              Now the 1 hour chart is giving me some mixed thoughts about the wave count. It seems better as 3 waves rally, still holding the price over the trend line. Despite that, looks a bit sloppy to count it as 5 waves for now. 

                  The best count I can suggest in daily time frame is a triangle formation to form, and very difficult range trading for the next few months. The difficulty comes from the fact, that the traders will need to turn from bears to bulls very often. It will probably cause lots of loses to the not too flexible ones. According to my time calculations that bull rally will probably show signs of exhaustion around the mid of July 2010. Then I suspect it will begin the down turn phase of a larger degree. Other- alternative count, which I didn't label on the chart is downside rally, breaking 9 835 low and painting one more "zig-zag", and resuming the bull case after that. We'll see next few weeks. 

 Very short term I am bearish, expecting possible 10 042 test.

While I was keeping on eye PUT/CALL Ratio, I noticed that the indicator crossed the DJIA trend very dramatically. That shows the PUT OPTIONS quantity last few days has risen rapidly. It is a very bearish sign.

 

         According to AAII, the bullish expectations for next few weeks market direction have risen to 45.3%. For me that suggests bearish expectations as well. 
                                 

Bullish	45.3% up 9.4
Neutral	29.4% down 8.5
Bearish	25.3% down 0.9 Any other ideas?

DJIA - HAPPY BIRTHDAY (1 YEAR BULL TREND)

Probably hurts.

        
          I view the bull action as likely a final move before a correction. Technically, the price is overbought in 1 to 4 hour time frames, and DJIA is squeezing every ounce from the bears.
         Now the most likely scenario is for a rally to continue in today's session little more higher - around 10 600, completing (C) wave of a (Y).  Then should be followed by a down turn phase.     

                                       
                  The Daily Index Sentiment is pitching into the extremes again.

Put/call ratio 5 day MA crossed down, supporting my bearish expectations. 

Let the force be with you:)

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.

I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 

I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.

Bullish	34.9%
Neutral	35.6%
Bearish	29.5%

PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.  

DJIA - Elliott "right look" is missing

I don't know what is next, but current picture here doesn't look impulsive. In one of my posts  since 20 Dec, I mentioned that H&S target hasn't met yet. I still don't know if the price gonna chase that target from here. I need more confirmations to claim the bull rally.

DJIA -update- bullish signs

                  
                        The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C) about now. That count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version. Next count (alternative) shows that (1) wave finished, and wave (2) resumes as an any complex correction.

                             There is one more count, which is possible too, and widely preferred in EW Blog sphere. It suggests waves (1), (2) and I  completed, and wave II is almost done.  If it is correct, will be proved next few days or week. I left it as count version as well, but I don't trust it much.

Add on.

Lot of calls lately.

 Good luck!

DJIA -update

                                              
                                                         The pattern (3-3-5 -expanded flat) is OK  (on schedule )

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                 There is nothing new to add to current scenario. Just wanted to make you clear that this count probably is going to work.

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

 Few days I was wondering what the Dow's price action wants to tell me. Today, I think we got along each other about the pattern. It doesn't look classical, but I think this count is going to work for now.Second wave resumed according to current count, and I hope the target box around Fibo50%-61.8% will be met this or next week .

Elliott Wave Update - short term bullish signals

   My advice for the greenhorns, is to stay aside, waiting for higher levels for shorting the market. Because, I expect five waves up for (C) wave of an "expanded flat".

Good luck!

  

Dow ---- WOW !!!

    Wow !!!- DJIA made 568 pts decline  for only 3 sessions, I haven't seen such a long leg down lately, and hasn't finished yet. The waves are so clear --- even suspicious clear. Just have a look at the 10 min chart.There is not much to explain what do I expect --Few more points down, and then few days for any A,B,C to correct the first wave.

Long term I left the door open for one more "zig-zag" and higher high to hit the H&S target, but let the time prove it. It depends on that how low will dip the market price. However, let the bear play it's dance and get some"SHORT" answers.

DJIA - Elliott Wave update- last call for the bulls

    It was necessary to adjust my count a little these days ( short and long term). Downside decline still remains according to my count. The ending diagonal pattern has extended a little more, than I expected. The current uptrend from the mid-Dec 2009 low is losing momentum. However all attempts on the downside so far find solid support near the 10 232 chart level. Eventually though, breaking this level, will give way to a strong selling pressure to correct the entire rally from the July 2009 low.
   Here my count shows, that one more little bounce up is expected. There is another alternative, that the end of that ED is already in place, and the expected decline is already on the way.

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

        
            The price's slightly climbing is getting weak last few days, forming an ending diagonal according to my count. As long as the prices stay above the 10 265-10 232 key support, the main focus still remains on the upside. However, when testing the 2008 resistance area at 10 827 will see whether  solid top can be found very soon (today or these days).
           On the downside, any move below 10 232, where is the ground of the ED will negate the above bullish view, and the end of (Y) wave is already in place.The current move looks like an overthrow. Breaking the ground ED line, painting 5 waves down, will support my bearish expectations.

Good luck!

   


      

INDU- Elliott Wave update

I think the battle between bulls and bears begins.

According to this count, the picture  looks like an ending diagonal.

INDU- CFD

          
                                     The negative market reaction after these news is bearish sign.

Elliott Wave update

Sorry, no time for text part today.
Probably we'll see the valley from higher.
I changed the count a little.

Elliott Wave update

      
                 The picture looks almost the same as yesterday, no market makers left last few days, due to the holidays .The price seems to paint  any kind of "flat" or "triangle" corrective pattern, which is typical for 4th waves. Little more optimism is needed about 5th wave to be finished. Probably it will occur first few days in 2010.  

That is one of my counts, which shows almost completed complex correction(till now),only the (C) wave of Z looks unfinished.

                            

That is other variant of my counting. According to this labeling the last wave of the W,X,Y pattern is not completed too.Very soon (early Jan.) the price will meet important resistance zone, where will be the battle between bulls & bears.

                             

It doesn't matter which count is correct, the fact of bearish smell is all around in the air. I see many signs, that the market rally is running out of steam. It’s just a matter of time. Well, important tops are usually a process, not a one day event. Money first flows from more risky assets to more conservative. Then eventually it flees to bonds. And then it goes to cash equivalents. All that takes time. It doesn’t occur from one day to the next.

Some facts, supporting the bearish idea. 

1. According to AAII Sentiment Survey( American association of individual investors ), 11.5% have turned into bullish camp only for one week.   

Bullish	49.2% up 11.5
Neutral	27.9% up 3.2
Bearish	23.0% down 14.7

      2. The price moves up, but volume is going lower last few sessions. This is based on individual investors naked optimism. More investors (speculators), less money.
       3.Put/call ratio is going lower.

            

I don't have to reject next chart as well. I expect any dropping soon, but  I do not believe that this cyclical bull move is done yet. As I said - it's a question of time. 

                            

Wish you Happy holidays, God bless you all !

And better trading in 2010 !

              
                          

Elliott Wave update

  Hello,  speculators. I am back again.  I hope you had a great Christmas Holidays.      


  However,  my alternative  count  came into play. And prise action doesn't  still show us reason to cover the long trades (if we have). 
Today the market did 6 green sessions I think.  I have labeled (V) wave as extended, which is probably due to the Christmas spirit  :-)   

See you.

Djia- update

I guess this is the market where most want to know when does it stop, well there is at least 3 variations how you want to count this particular move, as its gone from a clean 5 impulsive waves down, to a mixed pattern, where depending on the skills of the analyzer/Elliottician, those counts come into play.

However, if you have noticed the move up, on the counter 5 waves down (according to me)  has been very sharp and strong (typical for 2nd wave pullback)  

I am going to let the market now prove my count.