Jan 26, 2011

Elliott Wave Update

     The odds for extended Minor fifth wave become real , but not confirmed yet. The positive market bias still leads the price. Next short term resistance 1299.26 probably won't be a problem, because the bulls missed to touch 1300 last week, and I'am sure they will make another attempt. And 1304 is important angle acording to my Gann angle calculator. 
    1270.67 appears to be very strong support at least short term. If the bears get this support in the course of the week, will begin a correction. If that happens, the move will be very lazy, and probably will nest the price at the next support/resistance- around 1249.  
      There are many bearish calls last few days in the blogosphere, but I realy don't see any meaningful reason for dramatic and sharp sell off very short term. "What everyone knows is not worth knowing". 
     In 1/19/2011 the price broke dramatically 1287.25, touched 1270.75,  and produced reversal daily candle, which closed above the pink line (Gann angle). If we don't see weekly close below the main Gann angle, probably the price will bounce directly to 1360-1378 range, without a roundabout way.

     The upper channel line just stopped the bounsing price, but not for a long time. Typically for this index is  extended first wave. It occurs very often. 
I haven't labeled this sharp move, because I am not sure that first wave has  already unfolded and complete.

    "Grand picture" looks the same as it was last month-bullish long term. We are getting closer to weekly, and very strong resistance 3025-3043. We have Head and Shoulders pattern, whose projected target will be met this year probably.
Good luck trading!

Jan 13, 2011

SP 500

As long as the price continues to climb,  the ice under our feet becomes thinner and thinner at the same time. 
I come up with a slightly changed wave count, see the chart below. The price just touched 1287, which suggest lateral track for the rest of the session. The scenario stays valid- projected target 1304 . Better to stay away while this last wave unfolds.
We'll have almost 30% rise since 7/6/2010 if 1st Major finish around 1304-1315.
Good luck trading!

Jan 6, 2011

SP 500

Yesterday's price action didn't violate the tight trend channel. Market closed above the 1270.75 pivot, which sugests testing the next pivot and Gann angle 1287.25. Most likely the price will hit 1304 later this month. According to this count we are in the middle of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Major wave 1. Breaking 1254 will negate the Minor count.

Long term (daily) conditions still look steady and bullish despite the slightly overgought  indicators. Bullish action remains on track.  Reaching 1304-1315 pivot area will probably produse more violent decline. Until then we stay bullish.  
Good luck trading !