DXY - USD Index - update

I think US Dollar's downtrend is already done for now.According to my EW count we have five clear waves downside  completed, which completes the A,B,C pattern - called "expanded flat".At the bottom the bulls were over 90 %. In my post - Nov 25th  i pointed  reversal area- about 74,17, and I was very close, it stuck at 74,23 and bounced up to make it's first wave up.A small correction is expected next few days, reaching 75,49 area, where is 50% Fibo retracement,  and then up again.

Good luck!

DJIA- Peak rally- short term

                                  

                                        Have we made a truncated top?, I still don' know .no,no.no

                 I am not really sure about that wave count until the opposite is proven by the price paintings.

                                          

                            

I still wait for my fifth wave (5) to extend little higher to complete the pattern (W,X,Y) i have labeled. Also according to  Fobonacci time instrument, the reversal moment is very close, nearly 21-22 Dec.2009.

Interesting point of view comes from a colleague ewaver. Filipe Miguel has put all these, nearly 1 month SPX's squiggles in a frame,called "Diamond".The "diamond" is  trend reversal  formation, which means that the price will drop down early next week, which is very possible too. He made very sharp forecast about EUR/USD last week.

 

Bubbles stories

           

           When someone says the financial bubble has burst, we all know what "burst" means: A decline in stocks, indexes and real estate. Yet a  few people realize that the "bubble" itself involves more than just asset values -- it also involves psychology. And it's really important to distinguish between assets and psychology, for this simple reason: the end of bubble asset values does not mean the end of bubble psychology.

           In fact, mini-bubbles can happen after the big bubble has burst.

           Depending on how big the big bubble was, it can take a long time and a lot of losses to extinguish the psychology that drove it. It's easy to understand if you think about it. If things are not so good now, and better times are in the past, it won't take much to get the old enthusiasm going.

           Too much enthusiasm based on too little evidence is common to all bubbles, big or small. So here's where it gets tangible.

           Gold prices have recently pushed to all-time highs, the Dow Industrials to a new yearly high. But gold and the Dow have done this alone, as in NO other equity indices or commodities have followed.

           Now  which markets get all attention in the media? Gold and the Dow, of course -- to the point that people think the performance of these two markets is not the exception but the rule.

          Too much enthusiasm, too little evidence.

                                                                Enjoy the cartoons.

This is not a cartoon :)

DJIA - update

  


                                                           The triangle pattern looks completed.
                                             Get ready for the X-mas rally until something goes wrong :)

Good luck!

DJIA - update (last call for the bulls)

                                                     
                                             Hello wavers,
             I've got an important info to share with you today.


            According to Investors intelligence advisors sentiment, this week’s data included a new twelve year high for the advisors projecting a correction, along with lower readings for both the bulls and the bears. As things stand, the indexes continue to bet with 2009 highs. Pullbacks last week was brief and followed quickly by new buying. However, I have noted a narrowing of the participation.
        
            The bulls were down slightly to 50.0% after last week’s 50.6% reading, which equaled their September high. Both are still up nicely from the start of November, when a market pullback saw their drop to 44.4%. The advisors continue to show a major sentiment shift from a year ago when the bulls were just 22.2%. That was almost a twenty-year low going back to 15-Nov-88 when the bulls were 21.1%.The bears have left very few. They were just 16.7%, down from 17.6% the previous week and 26.7% the first week of November. That is the least bears since 13-Jun-03 when we counted them at 16.1%.
             
            The long-term bears are at their lowest level in over six years, while the short-term bears (those for a correction) are at their highest level in over twelve years - a very unusual pattern, according to them. The bulls are also well below where they were at the market peak in October 2007. This shows there are not a lot of bulls out there. But there are also many advisors who would like to become bulls if the market pulls back. As the markets often confounds expectations, I could see a year-end rally to new highs that could force the correction camp to capitulate and buy on strength. That, I think, could mark the top.
             
            The difference between the bulls and bears was 33.3%, up just 0.3% from last week and another bearish reading. Remember that last time we had such a large negative difference was in late 2007, just after the all-time high in the DJIA, pushing the  spread over 40%.

Date	DJIA	S&P 500	Bullish Advisors %	Bearish Advisors %	Correction Advisors %
Tue Dec 8, 2009	10,390.11	1,103.25	48.40	16.50	35.10
Tue Dec 1, 2009	10,471.58	1,108.86	50.00	16.70	33.30
Tue Nov 24, 2009	10,433.71	1,105.65	50.60	17.60	31.80
Tue Nov 17, 2009	10,437.42	1,110.32	46.10	21.30	32.60
Tue Nov 10, 2009	10,246.97	1,093.01	44.40	26.70	28.90

  

My expectations are for higher prices after completing the "triangle pattern".

My longer term count :

                              

                               

Good trading to all.