DJIA - update

DXY - USD Index - update

I think US Dollar's downtrend is already done for now.According to my EW count we have five clear waves downside  completed, which completes the A,B,C pattern - called "expanded flat".At the bottom the bulls were over 90 %. In my post - Nov 25th  i pointed  reversal area- about 74,17, and I was very close, it stuck at 74,23 and bounced up to make it's first wave up.A small correction is expected next few days, reaching 75,49 area, where is 50% Fibo retracement,  and then up again.

Good luck!

DJIA- Peak rally- short term

                                  

                                        Have we made a truncated top?, I still don' know .no,no.no

                 I am not really sure about that wave count until the opposite is proven by the price paintings.

                                          

                            

I still wait for my fifth wave (5) to extend little higher to complete the pattern (W,X,Y) i have labeled. Also according to  Fobonacci time instrument, the reversal moment is very close, nearly 21-22 Dec.2009.

Interesting point of view comes from a colleague ewaver. Filipe Miguel has put all these, nearly 1 month SPX's squiggles in a frame,called "Diamond".The "diamond" is  trend reversal  formation, which means that the price will drop down early next week, which is very possible too. He made very sharp forecast about EUR/USD last week.

 

Bubbles stories

           

           When someone says the financial bubble has burst, we all know what "burst" means: A decline in stocks, indexes and real estate. Yet a  few people realize that the "bubble" itself involves more than just asset values -- it also involves psychology. And it's really important to distinguish between assets and psychology, for this simple reason: the end of bubble asset values does not mean the end of bubble psychology.

           In fact, mini-bubbles can happen after the big bubble has burst.

           Depending on how big the big bubble was, it can take a long time and a lot of losses to extinguish the psychology that drove it. It's easy to understand if you think about it. If things are not so good now, and better times are in the past, it won't take much to get the old enthusiasm going.

           Too much enthusiasm based on too little evidence is common to all bubbles, big or small. So here's where it gets tangible.

           Gold prices have recently pushed to all-time highs, the Dow Industrials to a new yearly high. But gold and the Dow have done this alone, as in NO other equity indices or commodities have followed.

           Now  which markets get all attention in the media? Gold and the Dow, of course -- to the point that people think the performance of these two markets is not the exception but the rule.

          Too much enthusiasm, too little evidence.

                                                                Enjoy the cartoons.

This is not a cartoon :)

DJIA - update

  


                                                           The triangle pattern looks completed.
                                             Get ready for the X-mas rally until something goes wrong :)

Good luck!