SPX 500 Elliott Wave update

 Definitely  the short term picture looks bullish, even with the weak attempt to break the channel line. Anyway, this week is going to be interesting because we've got an impulse five up, which I labeled as "A" without any important resistance overcame. A short "a,b,c" correction is expected, which perhaps will try to test the previous 07/01 low. I think the price will calm down around 1035 before the next attempt to break the upper channel line.

                                                  chart updated 21/07

Good luck trading!

SUGAR- Elliott Wave Update

The sugar bulls seem to be still breathing. The price tested important support and bounced up successfully for new corrective high. Most likely the price will nest at $24.56 area and then will collapse for "C" wave of a "zig-zag". There are few evidence supporting that scenario :

• The price will meet 61.8% of "A" wave.
• There is 161.8% of the corrective (a) wave.
• If we overcame 38.2% will see the right shoulder of  potential H&S pattern completed, and that zone in the bigger ellipse matches with the target roughly. 
• See the circled bar in red.

                                                            Good luck trading!

SP 500 ON A CROSSROAD

While the price moves on schedule I will share with you my med term point of view. Currently we are in a crossroad and I give equal % to each of all med. term scenarios below.
According to first one the price hits the upper channel line and bounces down directly for the H&S target.

On the chart below the price makes "zig-zag", breaking the channel, but stays under the 1131 resistance, and makes one more leg down testing the zone between the solid red lines, where the 161.8 % Fibo of "A" wave is. And then up again.

Here is shown dramatic 1131 resistance and trend channel penetration.The price action takes lateral truck for at least several months, and then up again for the bigger H&S target-1370.

Conclusion:

I still can't count any impulsive wave since March 2009 low till April 2010 top without breaking the EWP rules.That suppose to be a complex correction. I don't want to freak you out, but despite that, I can't agree with the Flash Crash scenario yet. My long term bias is still bullish, just need to see deeper correction of the correction completed, before resuming the road to the ridge. Next couple a days I will nail my long term point of view picture on my blog's first page. From a timing point of view the trend should still be down into March 2011. 2010 should be bearish year according to Gann as well. So let the market decide where.

Good luck trading!

SP 500 cash index

Down sell target was reached, that had been prognosticated in my last post. Probably a week low was marked.We got the H&S pattern. The price slides down perfectly fit between the trend lines. Even the daily indicators don't look oversold. The things look simple.  It cannot be better. Now what? We should turn upwards now. The market needs a small and weak counter trend, filling the open gap noted on the chart below. One of the confirming things we have to look for is a reversal daily candle this week. It is maybe on place. The wave count looks proportionally completed. 

One thing is for sure: If we break the trend line downwards next few days the bear smell will spread out everywhere, and the very well known EWI flash begins, and my long term huge triangle scenario for the last few months fades out. 

I would like to add the bearish expectations chart according to AAII. The bearish bias among the investors rose up to 33 % last week. This level is very close to 7/09 35.6 %, when the price takes off again.

EUR/USD - Buy EURO

Now I think the expected rally for the EUROPEAN UNION began. Good luck!!!