SP500

    One month later the daily picture doesn't change much. According to my Elliott Wave count we must be in 5th Minor of (1)st Intermediate of 3th Primary. 

    The price still moves in track and longer term bulls control the ball. Since early July 2010 the market has been following this bullish setup. We should see rising prices at least few more weeks. My expectations for Intermediate top are in the range between 1375 - 1393. Will the saying "Sell in May and go away" will stay valid this year....

     In four hour chart I have included my Gann Angle Calculator, which is made in excel. It helps me to determine the support and resistance levels in advance as degrees, percent and price points.

Good Luck trading!!!

ONE ELLIOTT WAVE TRADER

SP500

We have third attempt to break the lower blue line. That undoubtedly means BUY signal. Target - the same.

Good trades!!!

SPX Friday Observations

 The 5th wave probably will not be as short as regularly is, and most likely I will assume on extended fifth to 1361-1378 range. I changed the (5)th wave count a little. It is similar to the count of friend of mine. 

In bigger time frame the picture still looks bullish. Since 1/3/2011 the price is something like "trying to escape from the expanding blue triangle chains"' but still not able to make it. The upper line keeps the closing daily price bellow and the lower line keeps it above. 

1361 looks like a price magnet, because 1360.65 is 261.8% of the (1)st wave, and 1361.01 is 100.00% of the (3)th wave. Untill we don't see breakthrough the triangle chains in weekly base before reaching 1361, I will reckon on this scenario.

Good luck trading!

Elliott Wave Update

   SP500

     The odds for extended Minor fifth wave become real , but not confirmed yet. The positive market bias still leads the price. Next short term resistance 1299.26 probably won't be a problem, because the bulls missed to touch 1300 last week, and I'am sure they will make another attempt. And 1304 is important angle acording to my Gann angle calculator. 

    1270.67 appears to be very strong support at least short term. If the bears get this support in the course of the week, will begin a correction. If that happens, the move will be very lazy, and probably will nest the price at the next support/resistance- around 1249.  

      There are many bearish calls last few days in the blogosphere, but I realy don't see any meaningful reason for dramatic and sharp sell off very short term. "What everyone knows is not worth knowing". 

     In 1/19/2011 the price broke dramatically 1287.25, touched 1270.75,  and produced reversal daily candle, which closed above the pink line (Gann angle). If we don't see weekly close below the main Gann angle, probably the price will bounce directly to 1360-1378 range, without a roundabout way.

STOXX50

     The upper channel line just stopped the bounsing price, but not for a long time. Typically for this index is  extended first wave. It occurs very often. 

I haven't labeled this sharp move, because I am not sure that first wave has  already unfolded and complete.

    "Grand picture" looks the same as it was last month-bullish long term. We are getting closer to weekly, and very strong resistance 3025-3043. We have Head and Shoulders pattern, whose projected target will be met this year probably.

Good luck trading!

SP 500

As long as the price continues to climb,  the ice under our feet becomes thinner and thinner at the same time. 

I come up with a slightly changed wave count, see the chart below. The price just touched 1287, which suggest lateral track for the rest of the session. The scenario stays valid- projected target 1304 . Better to stay away while this last wave unfolds.

We'll have almost 30% rise since 7/6/2010 if 1st Major finish around 1304-1315.

Good luck trading!