AEX - Elliott Wave Update

The European (Dutch) market looks bullish as well as the US one. As early as this week we'll see how strong the new rally really is. Friday performance already showed us that it doesn't seem to be the optimum. It retraced normally (healthy) at 61.8% Fibo, and as you see we are up again.

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I've got to say that I'm not quite sure about the emerging pattern on daily base, but sure there is more room for the price to go up.

                                                                                                                     Some Dutch history

Image via Wikipedia

Good luck!

EWI- Free week announcement

Image via Wikipedia

          While the Indexes make aggressive attempts for bear channel breaking, I will try to announce the EWI free week on Energy.
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Some fundamental news in past tense :-) Oil edges above $77 on Europe, China optimism

SPX 500 Elliott Wave update

 Definitely  the short term picture looks bullish, even with the weak attempt to break the channel line. Anyway, this week is going to be interesting because we've got an impulse five up, which I labeled as "A" without any important resistance overcame. A short "a,b,c" correction is expected, which perhaps will try to test the previous 07/01 low. I think the price will calm down around 1035 before the next attempt to break the upper channel line.

                                                  chart updated 21/07

Good luck trading!

SUGAR- Elliott Wave Update

The sugar bulls seem to be still breathing. The price tested important support and bounced up successfully for new corrective high. Most likely the price will nest at $24.56 area and then will collapse for "C" wave of a "zig-zag". There are few evidence supporting that scenario :

• The price will meet 61.8% of "A" wave.
• There is 161.8% of the corrective (a) wave.
• If we overcame 38.2% will see the right shoulder of  potential H&S pattern completed, and that zone in the bigger ellipse matches with the target roughly. 
• See the circled bar in red.

                                                            Good luck trading!

SP 500 ON A CROSSROAD

While the price moves on schedule I will share with you my med term point of view. Currently we are in a crossroad and I give equal % to each of all med. term scenarios below.
According to first one the price hits the upper channel line and bounces down directly for the H&S target.

On the chart below the price makes "zig-zag", breaking the channel, but stays under the 1131 resistance, and makes one more leg down testing the zone between the solid red lines, where the 161.8 % Fibo of "A" wave is. And then up again.

Here is shown dramatic 1131 resistance and trend channel penetration.The price action takes lateral truck for at least several months, and then up again for the bigger H&S target-1370.

Conclusion:

I still can't count any impulsive wave since March 2009 low till April 2010 top without breaking the EWP rules.That suppose to be a complex correction. I don't want to freak you out, but despite that, I can't agree with the Flash Crash scenario yet. My long term bias is still bullish, just need to see deeper correction of the correction completed, before resuming the road to the ridge. Next couple a days I will nail my long term point of view picture on my blog's first page. From a timing point of view the trend should still be down into March 2011. 2010 should be bearish year according to Gann as well. So let the market decide where.

Good luck trading!