Dec 20, 2009

DJIA - update. Correction of the correction.

              I call "correction of the correction" all that rally since 6th of  March 2009 till now.
And now I have a few reasons to expect downside move, which is correction of the upper  "correction of the correction".
                                                 I think became too complicated.

  1. First one is a huge divergence to many indicators and price movement on daily base MACD,RSI, etc. 
  2. All that straight rally hasn't got it's big enough correction  ( 06/11/2009-07/08/209)
  3.  The bulls advanced to 52.2% from 48.4% a week ago. That is the most long-term optimism we’ve seen since December 2007, when their number was retreating from 62.0% shown at that October’s all-time market high. A year later at the first bear market lows the bulls had slipped to just 22.2%.         Advisors Sentiment Table
    Date
    DJIA
    S&P 500
    Bullish
    Advisors %

    Bearish
    Advisors %

    Correction
    Advisors %

    Tue Dec 15, 2009
    10,501.05
    1,114.11
    52.20
    16.70
    31.10
    Tue Dec 8, 2009
    10,285.97
    1,091.94
    48.40
    16.50
    35.10
                  
  4. We are very close to end of  Fibonacci 3th cycle on the chart (orange dotted vertical line)  
  5. I think we have 5 impulsive waves down.

                                                                       To many reasons.

No comments: