Elliott Wave update

      
                 The picture looks almost the same as yesterday, no market makers left last few days, due to the holidays .The price seems to paint  any kind of "flat" or "triangle" corrective pattern, which is typical for 4th waves. Little more optimism is needed about 5th wave to be finished. Probably it will occur first few days in 2010.  

That is one of my counts, which shows almost completed complex correction(till now),only the (C) wave of Z looks unfinished.

                            

That is other variant of my counting. According to this labeling the last wave of the W,X,Y pattern is not completed too.Very soon (early Jan.) the price will meet important resistance zone, where will be the battle between bulls & bears.

                             

It doesn't matter which count is correct, the fact of bearish smell is all around in the air. I see many signs, that the market rally is running out of steam. It’s just a matter of time. Well, important tops are usually a process, not a one day event. Money first flows from more risky assets to more conservative. Then eventually it flees to bonds. And then it goes to cash equivalents. All that takes time. It doesn’t occur from one day to the next.

Some facts, supporting the bearish idea. 

1. According to AAII Sentiment Survey( American association of individual investors ), 11.5% have turned into bullish camp only for one week.   

Bullish	49.2% up 11.5
Neutral	27.9% up 3.2
Bearish	23.0% down 14.7

      2. The price moves up, but volume is going lower last few sessions. This is based on individual investors naked optimism. More investors (speculators), less money.
       3.Put/call ratio is going lower.

            

I don't have to reject next chart as well. I expect any dropping soon, but  I do not believe that this cyclical bull move is done yet. As I said - it's a question of time. 

                            

Wish you Happy holidays, God bless you all !

And better trading in 2010 !