Feb 26, 2010

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.
I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 
I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.




Bullish 34.9%


Neutral 35.6%

Bearish 29.5%


PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.  



4 comments:

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14 Infallibles said...

Hello dear Milen

We should never under estimate the wave patterns, even if we thought (most of us did) that the DJI had finished the rally and a major wave degree was over, we were waiting for the downturn to start with an Impulse for wave 3 or a C to continue the major correction from last year.

I was one of those guys, just waiting for a 5 wave down to be counted as 1 of 3 or C
but I was wrong.

I over looked the last wave pattern, waiting and counting any downturn to be 5 wave sequence for my wave 1 of major 3, waves have saved me too many times from loosing more money, did not make that much off of it, but stopped me from big losses.

The last one, was last night, I just realized that I was wrong and the whole pattern is just a 3 wave count (exactly as you counted it).

Why I did not listen to the last wave pattern? I use to be a good listener, but when you listen to others (Elliottians) you just think that they are right and no need to double check on this wave pattern. Then do influence you, should have done my homework.

As you beautifully wrote it in your footer (Words of Wisdom dear Milen) :
"After all, your wave count can be wrong; the pattern cannot !"

I'm very glad that I've found your blog as I'll be always following up on your analysis from now on.

Take care and be well.

Milen Kolev said...

Hello dear Eisa,
Your comment (letter) is very important for me. I appreciate your support a lot.
I just try to follow few rules very tight. I respect other's work, but my own analysis (double checked) has the latest weight for me.
I know I am wrong sometimes.
As human beings, we are too sentimental to be perfect.
Thank you again, and:
Be good (listener)

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