DJIA - A sight from the ridge

              Probably some of you remember my post DJIA update-bullish signs  (Feb 10 2010), where I suggested scenario about the current picture. That scenario was totally different than the most preferred  in EW Sphere. The time is on the way to prove that lateral truck picture. 
              Now the 1 hour chart is giving me some mixed thoughts about the wave count. It seems better as 3 waves rally, still holding the price over the trend line. Despite that, looks a bit sloppy to count it as 5 waves for now. 

                  The best count I can suggest in daily time frame is a triangle formation to form, and very difficult range trading for the next few months. The difficulty comes from the fact, that the traders will need to turn from bears to bulls very often. It will probably cause lots of loses to the not too flexible ones. According to my time calculations that bull rally will probably show signs of exhaustion around the mid of July 2010. Then I suspect it will begin the down turn phase of a larger degree. Other- alternative count, which I didn't label on the chart is downside rally, breaking 9 835 low and painting one more "zig-zag", and resuming the bull case after that. We'll see next few weeks. 

 Very short term I am bearish, expecting possible 10 042 test.

While I was keeping on eye PUT/CALL Ratio, I noticed that the indicator crossed the DJIA trend very dramatically. That shows the PUT OPTIONS quantity last few days has risen rapidly. It is a very bearish sign.

 

         According to AAII, the bullish expectations for next few weeks market direction have risen to 45.3%. For me that suggests bearish expectations as well. 
                                 

Bullish	45.3% up 9.4
Neutral	29.4% down 8.5
Bearish	25.3% down 0.9 Any other ideas?