As you know, the Ewaves are usually aroused by the social mood. That inaugurate events in the world, and when the EUR down trend began, still nobody was talking about fiscal problems in Greece, Portugal and other European countries. We still don’t know if these problems will end next weeks or not, but the pair EUR/USD very soon will complete very clear 5 waves downward, which are built for nearly five months. It was very serious decline due to hmmm....Do you think the P.I.G.S did it?
5 complete waves means, that the EUR is going to be kicked out by the green old buck for deeper retrace very soon.
See the current labeling I did: Technically two weeks ago I was doubting about the (V)th wave could happen (the current (iV) wave was labeled in my chart as "leading diagonal" of potential (a) corrective wave). So, that (V) is already underway and I relabeled my count.
I have enclosed the whole data I've got, and as you see the grand channel (since 1971) still holds the price between the lines.
The potential target looks like 1EUR= 1$
2 comments:
Hi Milen,
Fantastic blog!! I always enjoy your analysis! I recently put a long count of the EUR/USD together here Thoughts on the Euro, the Dollar, and a Long Term EUR/USD Count. I went as far back as Prophet in TOS had data for (1988). But I completely agree with you, your longer term data set paints a much different conclusion that my count. I think the pullback (based on my count) for C will be ~1.12. But you have a *very* compelling argument for 1.00.
Thank you for sharing your work!!
-binve
Hi binve,
Thank you first.
You've written great, and very comprehensive material about the pair and the $. I think the support at 61.8% Fibo(1.12) is a good reason for trend change, but have you thought about breaking the support? I noticed that both pull backs before are deeper than 61.8% Fibonacci. However, 1.00 or 1.12 looks like 10 pips difference in monthly base. As you know the Forex market is nothing more than wide range lateral track. Taking that fact, we've made very brave suggestion:)
Take care
Milen
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