The short answer is YES. The bull market is a fact. Fact is also that I can't count any five wave impulse up since 03/06/09 without breaking the main Elliott Wave Principle Rules.
I would like to focus on the topic which course the American stock market is going to adopt and to concentrate upon the price target, which is expected in April.
The chart below shows one of my both wave counts and potential short term price and time targets.
Next chart below is the alternative one, where I relabeled few highs and lows. But however, the mid wave count doesn't matter in this case, more important is the pattern
AAII Sentiment Survey gives support to my short term bearish bias.
This week's survey saw bullish sentiment rise to 48.5%, below its long-term average of 38.9%.
Short term Average:
| Bullish |  48.5%up 5.6 | ||
| Neutral | 21.8% down 5 | ||
| Bearish | 29.7% dow |
Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%
Check this out -mega extreme indicator (Put/Call Ratio)levels
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%
Check this out -mega extreme indicator (Put/Call Ratio)levels
2 comments:
When you say this is a "bull market" do you mean a bull market like 1995 - 2000 or 2003 - 2007 or do you mean a "bear market rally" where this bull is contained within a larger, bearish market? It seems hard to justify a return of 2006 valuations on the DOW (we are there now) with the slower global growth picture we currently see. Great website, I always enjoy reading it. Thanks, Ian
Hey Ian,
Thanks for your comment first. As an EWP follower I've tried many times to count the waves (Dow, SPX), contained in the current rise as an impulse waves. However, there are five incomplete waves, but their structure currently looks corrective. In fact, the rally is a fact, and as a traders or investors we had the chance to get some profit on that move whatever it is - bear rally or bull market. Just be friend with the trend. For me is a bear market rally for now, and the reversal point for correction or lower bottom is behind the corner.
Usually when the stock market makes important tops and bottoms is normally the statistic and fundamental global growth to come 9 months or year later.
Thanks
Milen
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