Feb 26, 2010

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.
I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 
I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.

Bullish 34.9%

Neutral 35.6%

Bearish 29.5%

PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.  

Feb 25, 2010

XAG/USD -Elliott wave count

The immediate pressure remains on the downside and we expect further decline twd 15.00. 5 wave impulsive pattern formed yesterday. I doubt a little the corrective move has finished already. However, a classical pattern has formed also ( head & shoulders), which propose the same target as the EWT suggests. Good luck!

Feb 24, 2010

S&P 500 Very short term

We  have 5 clear impulsive waves dropping down.The corrective move looks almost done. The signal for one more move down is very reliable.

Good luck!

FTSE100 - Elliott Wave update

As I expected, the corrective move bounced up to the Fibonacci levels (61.8%). With last week's expected pullback, the immediate pressure has shifted on the downside. Trading with slight downside bias, probable dropping can be expected  next couple of days. The price action already made 5 impulsive waves downside about now. We still don't have strong SELL signals.

Good luck !

Feb 22, 2010


This pair is diverging for weeks, and already painted 5 waves up. The correction reached 38.2% Fibonacci, giving me reason to open long position. If it is ordinary "zig-zag" the target is good as well.


           In 1 hour time frame the pair has made upside complex (w,x,y,x,z), containing few  "zig- zags".I noticed diverging indicators, which means the bounce up is done about now. There is a good opportunity to short the market. The nearest and most possible target is around 123.00 price.  

Feb 19, 2010

AEX - To the horses!!!

        As you've noticed, I prefer to analyze and trade not as "famous" instruments, as DJIA or SPX ets. Why? The answer is - there is a lot of "noise" there, because they are the most traded instruments in the world.
        Isn't the most important thing for us- the "market speculators", to find out where are the most reliable patterns, and signals to trade or invest in ??? . Most important thing for us is to make cash, alongside with satisfying our EGO, make us feel proud of our selfs.
        I can assure you, there are many not so "famous" instruments, who paint very clear and reliable wave patterns, and give reliable signals, worth to be traded. It doesn't make sense to follow, and chase only one instrument, wherever it goes.
      Few years ago I had such a bad experience, when I was chasing only one.Then I felt I had the duty to be in the GAME all the time. Suddenly one day I found my trading account empty. That is one of my stories.

My preferred count about AEX is 5 waves as an "expanded leading diagonal". Alt one is for a complex (W)(X)(Y). One"zig-zag" is completed and (C) wave of the second one is underway.
           The current move has corrected the pattern to 38.2%Fibonacci, which forced me to open short position. The red bear line stopped the price about now. The first target is around 301.50. If the price action breaks 296.36 resistance, the bears could lead  the price to 286.50, where is my second target.
                                                                Good luck!!!

Feb 18, 2010

DJIA - Elliott "right look" is missing

I don't know what is next, but current picture here doesn't look impulsive. In one of my posts  since 20 Dec, I mentioned that H&S target hasn't met yet. I still don't know if the price gonna chase that target from here. I need more confirmations to claim the bull rally.

AEX - Elliott Wave Analysis

I respect AEX Index a lot, because it's Dutch. Maybe, some of you don't know the fact, that the  word "BOURSE" comes from HOLLAND in 17th century, but this is other theme. Some day I'll tell you the whole story.
So AEX, like it's European fellows DAX and STOXX50 has painted something, which was worth to involve me in trades - "C" wave of the "zig -zag". Usually I don't trade corrections, except when I am in a good trading condition.The pattern I have labeled as (1) wave looks like an "expanded leading diagonal".
The price already met my first target and 38.2% Fibonacci, painting complex correction. I still don't know if the price going further to 61.8% Fibo or not. It is possible channel line back test as well, which will be close 61.8% retrace. I think better get out, and prepare my mind for bear dance.

Feb 16, 2010

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DAX-Elliott wave update

                                                                    Good luck!

STOXX 50- Elliott wave update

 STOXX50 index has formed very clear and reliable 5 wave impulsive pattern like  DAX. But the corrective waves structure little differs. According to the wave count. is expected (2) or (B) wave progression to at least 2.767=38.2% Fibonacci, or nearly 2.872= 61.8% Fibonacci level retracement. The situation gives us great opportunity  to take short position, chasing wave (3) or (c) ,and has reliability over 90%.  

Feb 14, 2010

DAX-Elliott wave update

                                                              Happy Valentine's Day !!!
Almost nothing changed since my last post about DAX. I still expect (2) or (B) wave progression to at least 5.655=38.2% Fibo, or 5.821=61.8%  Fibo. I missed 50.0% Fibo, because that level matches  resistance peak at 5.738. If the price action break that resistance, possibly the price will run after at least 61.8%Fibonacci.
Most probable reversal levels-5.666 and 5.796.

Feb 13, 2010

Enjoy the weekend

                                     On Monday "Anything can happen "

Feb 11, 2010

DAX-Elliott wave update

Since my last post about DAX  I've changed the wave count a little, but the pattern hasn't changed, just a bit extended. As you see my expectations are for corrective (2) or (B) wave, which is on the half way according to this count.
 Usually I can't afford to suggest and trade corrections, but in this case (bigger time frame) I did it anyway. And ready to cover in emergency around 38.2% Fibo. My trade and picture about  STOXX50 is similar. I don't suggest to get in now, because it's little bit late for long trades now, I mean more risky. Better wait for the bearish train. It promises better short target.  

In daily time frame the tape hasn't change a lot. That is what i do expect. I will make a daily update when the price is closer to the red battle field.  

 Pu/call ratio is up as well, confirming my short term idea.

Feb 10, 2010

DJIA -update- bullish signs

                        The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C) about now. That count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version. Next count (alternative) shows that (1) wave finished, and wave (2) resumes as an any complex correction.

                             There is one more count, which is possible too, and widely preferred in EW Blog sphere. It suggests waves (1), (2) and I  completed, and wave II is almost done.  If it is correct, will be proved next few days or week. I left it as count version as well, but I don't trust it much.

Add on.
Lot of calls lately.
 Good luck!

Feb 8, 2010

STOXX 50- Elliott wave update

The structure reliability for downside impulse is very high. As you see I've labeled the move since 1/11/2010 as wave (1) (preferred count). Of course there is alternative count, which suggests the current correction as wave II of (3) to be underway, back testing the red neckline and down again.

The bigger time frame(daily) suggests couple of scenarios as well. My preferred count suggests P2 END and P3 underway. However, my expectations are for at least one more move lower. The ALT one(A)(B)(C) and new high is possible too. My doubt it based on the bigger H&S pattern since 09/03/2010, whose target is not met yet.
So, I suggest tiny  long and stop at 2,593. Exit- around 2,820.The target is good. If I am wrong, the loss will be tiny.
Good luck!
Update 2:00(GMT+2)
Individual investor's choice for next few months. Information from last week.

Sentiment Survey
1/27 to 2/3

Bullish 29.2%
down 5.8

Neutral 27.7%
down 0.6
Bearish 43.1%
up 6.4

Update DJIA -daily-candlesticks 12;00pm(GMT+2)
Just sharing an idea.


Feb 4, 2010


Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime      The market loves to make most of us look stupid often. All what we do- chasing the market,  is something like adoring a girl. Don't you think?  We try to follow  every market move like the girl of our life. And often we got hurt by that girl, trying to pay her all of our attention and love.(sorry girls, some man point of view )
I think flirting with the market only, is the best way for success. Some people have the flirting as a gift. There is only one rule  for them- doing for fun, and no matter what's the exit.(leg over or nothing)
 Friend of mine (Ivo Gruev) wrote a book named " The Bourse- Flirt or War"  It is written there about the people, who would have the courage  and patience  to make two things: to overcome their own ego and get friends with the stock market. But it's published in my native language only.
         However let's do some work, " flattering our love".

I don't know am I wright, but I saw a possibility in European indexes. Last two hours I was "in private" with STOXX50, and a small lamp blinked over my head. By the way, in one hour bars most of the European indexes look oversold according to RSI.In  that time frame the longer lasting clues and signals are not so reliable, so I am not so sure.
                                                    There is something suspicious about that wave (2) has began from that level. Nasdaq100 didn't even touched Fibo38.2% before today's leg down.Usually it makes very deep corrections.
                                              Have a look at this chart:

                               See you tomorrow, better take a nap.
Good luck!

Feb 3, 2010


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DJIA -update

                                                         The pattern (3-3-5 -expanded flat) is OK  (on schedule )

Feb 2, 2010

DAX 1hour chart

DAX has painted almost the same as FTSE100. The expected correcting bounce resumed. According to Fibonacci  ratio and Gann's angles the (2) wave could top around Monday-8th. Jan.nearly to 61.8% Fibonacci.

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                 There is nothing new to add to current scenario. Just wanted to make you clear that this count probably is going to work.

Feb 1, 2010

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

 Few days I was wondering what the Dow's price action wants to tell me. Today, I think we got along each other about the pattern. It doesn't look classical, but I think this count is going to work for now.Second wave resumed according to current count, and I hope the target box around Fibo50%-61.8% will be met this or next week .