The Hard Rock music and the Elliott Wave Principle

       I wrote this material almost one year ago, but i lost it somewhere in my PC hard drive. Fortunately few days ago I dug it out. 

    First I want to appologise about the botchy translation, but I think the idea by itself is more important, so leave the market for a while and read this;  

                                                                      

                                                                            PART I

              As a huge hard rock fan, I will try to apply this type of music as a social mood, its beginnings and derivatives to the Elliott Wave Principle.

         

          The blues originates at the end of 19^th and the beginning of the 20^th century.  Largely the country-music has been brought by the white emigrants in North America.

              Most of us know the meaning of "the blues"-, melancholy, depression etc. In the blues the escort has been with a guitar and banjo. The love, the farewell, the death, the slavery and the similar excited-physical states are the subjects.

             We will review that period as wave 1 of one musical trend, which has reflected in itself the crowd’s emotional condition. Typically for the first waves in a new bull trend is, that they are build themselves when everybody are totally despaired , concerned about the future. That period is overlapped by the world economy, which is at the doorway to the strong rise unseen for all time, whose pick achieves in 1929. We all have heard about that year.

              

           Wave 2 normally begins, when the negative spirits are still in evidence. At this time the news are even worse, than they have been near the previous bottom, but despite this the mass stock selling and the fear do not manage to bring new low. Prices do not fall under the previous bottom.

               Next few years the music gets curling up as a social mood. Some names in blues are confirmed in this period /1930-1950/ as Moody Waters, Willie Dickson etc. That time matches with the Spirit Prohibition and the Second World War.           Let’s label that period as wave 2.

               

          In 54^th "Rock around the clock" with guitar and drums accompaniment by Bill Haley blows the crowd and become a hit very fast.

              Then begins wave 3 according to my point of view. That is the best thing could happen to everyone. It is a suicide standing against the 3th waves.

  Wave number 3 matches with the rising economic trends and continues to nearly 2000 year.

              In the end of 50s - Radio announcer used the concept-rock"n"roll for the first time, which is blues and country mixture. Then that style is presented and sung only by Afro-Americans as Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Beau Didley etc. A deal of great contribution gives "the boy of America" Elvis Presley. We have to mention Buddy Halle, Jerry Lee Louis and Johnny Cash as well.

TO BE CONTINUED …….

DJIA - HAPPY BIRTHDAY (1 YEAR BULL TREND)

Probably hurts.

        
          I view the bull action as likely a final move before a correction. Technically, the price is overbought in 1 to 4 hour time frames, and DJIA is squeezing every ounce from the bears.
         Now the most likely scenario is for a rally to continue in today's session little more higher - around 10 600, completing (C) wave of a (Y).  Then should be followed by a down turn phase.     

                                       
                  The Daily Index Sentiment is pitching into the extremes again.

Put/call ratio 5 day MA crossed down, supporting my bearish expectations. 

Let the force be with you:)

DAX - Elliott wave update

The current up move (a) looks completed in 5 waves. I expect a brief action (b),  reaching 5 650 area, where is the red bear back test line. That action is also called correction of the correction  in the next upward move to new corrective high in next few weeks. I remain modestly short, and expect a lateral track for a few sessions.

Let the force be with you :)

THE GOLD RUSH

      Last month I was thinking about end of (B) wave of a potential "expanding flat", but last few weeks the price action put me in doubts. The main reason is that the downside move's wave structure looks corrective about now. I have labeled a corrective complex- W, X, Y, made of "zig – zags”. In addition February produced a reversal candle on daily base, confirming a significant low.

     As we see the Gold rebounded from the 1032 line-strongly and impressively. I do not  see anything bearish on the horizon about now. 

    If the price continues up, chasing that potential (C) wave, should paint just one more zig-zag, or any complex completing 'Y' wave. Then that count remains to be valid.

      If the upward move I expect paint an impulse 5, then the Grand picture would be totally different. It could form 5 waves of a larger degree.
     The tape now is a bit unclear as a wave structure, and I prefer to have little more data till the next update on spot Gold.

     The expectations are for new high to 1 252- 1 320.  The herd escalated with one more bull---me. 

Enjoy the video!

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.

I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 

I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.

Bullish	34.9%
Neutral	35.6%
Bearish	29.5%

PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.