The Hard Rock music and the Elliott Wave Principle part II

                                                      PART II

             In the beginning of 60 - groups like “The Beatles",” The Rolling Stones” change the rock by accessioning greater sounds, heavy guitars, loud drums and strong singers. That sound  becomes the hard rock’s ground, and leaves a deep sign in my musical culture later. That style forms at last and becomes known at the end of 60s . Deep purple and Led Zeрpelin help out for its imposition with their first albums.    Note that then the world indices are already consolidated.

        

            During the 70s the assortment of other genres evolves from the hard rock. Queen mixes hard rock and heavy metal, progressive, even opera.

        Like every economic trend, and the musical one makes corrections.

 In 1980 Led Zeрpelin breaks after the drummer’s sudden death. The AC/DC’s vocal- Bon Scott dies  in the same year. Thereupon the fact, I have reason to suspect the end of the first  from third wave of "classical" hard rocks-bands.

   Some groups like Queen even goes away from hard rock sounding, they oriented to the pop-rock.

        The end of 80’s, according to my screenings is the most successful period for the hard rock music.

       Based on the wave counting, I suppose to expect third of a third wave. The first places in the musical rankings have been reached by hard rocks bands mostly. Bon Jovy’s "Slippery when wet" (1986) stays for 8 weeks in ” Billboard” ranking.  Europe’s "The final countdown" reaches a number-1 in 26 countrys. In 1987, the most mind - blowing albums are" Appetite for destruction" of  Guns’n Roses, and  Def Leppard’s “Hysteria”. I know that I cut quite great names in hard rock and their interpretation in the rankings, therefore expect all fans to forgive me.

         In the beginning of 90 appears new  combination:  punk and heavy metal and other styles . The bands who make this manner are Nirvana ... . . I do not remember about others.  I offer  to label this period as a fifth of third wave. Then launches a range of genres with hard core, rap and soul mixture. I intentionally missed  to enrich my musical culture, because I prefer the classics.

        I have the reason to suspect  beginning of wave four  around the beginning of the new millennium.This period begins I think with apathy about  the fans and the rocks-bands. The concert manifestations are rarity, probably due to the concern about avian flu  infection, anthrax or terrorist  assaults. The world indices as well went in corrections . The fourth waves have consolidating character .

      Fifth waves are usually based on extreme and mindless optimism.  Their form is different  and depends on previous 1^st and 3th waves proportion.

       In the beginning of the new century older and gray, some of my favourite groups begun to make songs, singles as well, validated their concert activity and even visited my country few times.

       I offer this period to be labeled as wave number five. During this wave i was really happy, because one of my dreams came true.  I had the opportunity to watch my favourite rock bands live. I visited in a three years period Deep Purple, Whitesnake, Ronnie James Dio and Rainbow, who brought dose of harmony in my soul.

      

       The most famous recent hard rock-bands have members from last century groups. For example “Velvet revolver” has member of the ex Guns’n Roses. These groups make secondary  meetings out and events

       Led Zeppelin export one concert and revive the hard rock-pastime again.

    According to Elliott Wave Model if we have five waves in one direction suppose to expect three waves (A B C) in the backward direction.

      I have reasons to think that the correction has already begun. What exactly do I can expect in times after this correction still can only imagine, but possibly the rock music will receive some other kind of sounding. I really hope that kind of the rock to sound like Deep Purple, Whitesnake, Rainbow, AC /DС, Def Leppard and other rock dinosaurs. 

     

DJIA - A sight from the ridge

              Probably some of you remember my post DJIA update-bullish signs  (Feb 10 2010), where I suggested scenario about the current picture. That scenario was totally different than the most preferred  in EW Sphere. The time is on the way to prove that lateral truck picture. 
              Now the 1 hour chart is giving me some mixed thoughts about the wave count. It seems better as 3 waves rally, still holding the price over the trend line. Despite that, looks a bit sloppy to count it as 5 waves for now. 

                  The best count I can suggest in daily time frame is a triangle formation to form, and very difficult range trading for the next few months. The difficulty comes from the fact, that the traders will need to turn from bears to bulls very often. It will probably cause lots of loses to the not too flexible ones. According to my time calculations that bull rally will probably show signs of exhaustion around the mid of July 2010. Then I suspect it will begin the down turn phase of a larger degree. Other- alternative count, which I didn't label on the chart is downside rally, breaking 9 835 low and painting one more "zig-zag", and resuming the bull case after that. We'll see next few weeks. 

 Very short term I am bearish, expecting possible 10 042 test.

While I was keeping on eye PUT/CALL Ratio, I noticed that the indicator crossed the DJIA trend very dramatically. That shows the PUT OPTIONS quantity last few days has risen rapidly. It is a very bearish sign.

 

         According to AAII, the bullish expectations for next few weeks market direction have risen to 45.3%. For me that suggests bearish expectations as well. 
                                 

Bullish	45.3% up 9.4
Neutral	29.4% down 8.5
Bearish	25.3% down 0.9 Any other ideas?

The Hard Rock music and the Elliott Wave Principle

       I wrote this material almost one year ago, but i lost it somewhere in my PC hard drive. Fortunately few days ago I dug it out. 

    First I want to appologise about the botchy translation, but I think the idea by itself is more important, so leave the market for a while and read this;  

                                                                      

                                                                            PART I

              As a huge hard rock fan, I will try to apply this type of music as a social mood, its beginnings and derivatives to the Elliott Wave Principle.

         

          The blues originates at the end of 19^th and the beginning of the 20^th century.  Largely the country-music has been brought by the white emigrants in North America.

              Most of us know the meaning of "the blues"-, melancholy, depression etc. In the blues the escort has been with a guitar and banjo. The love, the farewell, the death, the slavery and the similar excited-physical states are the subjects.

             We will review that period as wave 1 of one musical trend, which has reflected in itself the crowd’s emotional condition. Typically for the first waves in a new bull trend is, that they are build themselves when everybody are totally despaired , concerned about the future. That period is overlapped by the world economy, which is at the doorway to the strong rise unseen for all time, whose pick achieves in 1929. We all have heard about that year.

              

           Wave 2 normally begins, when the negative spirits are still in evidence. At this time the news are even worse, than they have been near the previous bottom, but despite this the mass stock selling and the fear do not manage to bring new low. Prices do not fall under the previous bottom.

               Next few years the music gets curling up as a social mood. Some names in blues are confirmed in this period /1930-1950/ as Moody Waters, Willie Dickson etc. That time matches with the Spirit Prohibition and the Second World War.           Let’s label that period as wave 2.

               

          In 54^th "Rock around the clock" with guitar and drums accompaniment by Bill Haley blows the crowd and become a hit very fast.

              Then begins wave 3 according to my point of view. That is the best thing could happen to everyone. It is a suicide standing against the 3th waves.

  Wave number 3 matches with the rising economic trends and continues to nearly 2000 year.

              In the end of 50s - Radio announcer used the concept-rock"n"roll for the first time, which is blues and country mixture. Then that style is presented and sung only by Afro-Americans as Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Beau Didley etc. A deal of great contribution gives "the boy of America" Elvis Presley. We have to mention Buddy Halle, Jerry Lee Louis and Johnny Cash as well.

TO BE CONTINUED …….

DJIA - HAPPY BIRTHDAY (1 YEAR BULL TREND)

Probably hurts.

        
          I view the bull action as likely a final move before a correction. Technically, the price is overbought in 1 to 4 hour time frames, and DJIA is squeezing every ounce from the bears.
         Now the most likely scenario is for a rally to continue in today's session little more higher - around 10 600, completing (C) wave of a (Y).  Then should be followed by a down turn phase.     

                                       
                  The Daily Index Sentiment is pitching into the extremes again.

Put/call ratio 5 day MA crossed down, supporting my bearish expectations. 

Let the force be with you:)

DAX - Elliott wave update

The current up move (a) looks completed in 5 waves. I expect a brief action (b),  reaching 5 650 area, where is the red bear back test line. That action is also called correction of the correction  in the next upward move to new corrective high in next few weeks. I remain modestly short, and expect a lateral track for a few sessions.

Let the force be with you :)

THE GOLD RUSH

      Last month I was thinking about end of (B) wave of a potential "expanding flat", but last few weeks the price action put me in doubts. The main reason is that the downside move's wave structure looks corrective about now. I have labeled a corrective complex- W, X, Y, made of "zig – zags”. In addition February produced a reversal candle on daily base, confirming a significant low.

     As we see the Gold rebounded from the 1032 line-strongly and impressively. I do not  see anything bearish on the horizon about now. 

    If the price continues up, chasing that potential (C) wave, should paint just one more zig-zag, or any complex completing 'Y' wave. Then that count remains to be valid.

      If the upward move I expect paint an impulse 5, then the Grand picture would be totally different. It could form 5 waves of a larger degree.
     The tape now is a bit unclear as a wave structure, and I prefer to have little more data till the next update on spot Gold.

     The expectations are for new high to 1 252- 1 320.  The herd escalated with one more bull---me. 

Enjoy the video!

DJIA - Elliott Wave update

                    So far this week’s price action has been up mostly, one day down. For instance 2/25/10 low 10 186 held about now. The question, that remains is very simple:
                   Is this a developing five waves to the upside, or just a simple A,B,C correction into March 1st, which will be followed to a slight new low for next two weeks? The key will be 10 438 resistance level as well as the 10 186 support, which is the “must” hold level for the bulls –short term. So far we have 3 developed waves, which look completed. But would look much cleaner with a slight new high into the resistance I noted.

The downside move begun in 01/19/2010 looks like an ordinary "zig-zag" (A)(B)(C). This count suggests sideways next few weeks (months) or higher top. Sounds Heretical, I know. Despite that I left it as my primary version.

I would like to remind you something, I wrote in previous post  Dec 20 2009, where I mentioned, that classical pattern's target is not met yet. Just keep it in mind. I hope next week's  price action will make us more clear about the market's intentions. 

I keep watching the  Sentiment Survey Results as of 2/24/2010, where I do not see any extreme levels.

Bullish	34.9%
Neutral	35.6%
Bearish	29.5%

PS.   For last two years I keep on eye every full moon cycle. I've noticed that every month the   stock market is UP for at least 2-3 days, covering  the full moon cycle- correcting or impulsing.  It happens every month.  

XAG/USD -Elliott wave count

The immediate pressure remains on the downside and we expect further decline twd 15.00. 5 wave impulsive pattern formed yesterday. I doubt a little the corrective move has finished already. However, a classical pattern has formed also ( head & shoulders), which propose the same target as the EWT suggests. Good luck!

S&P 500 Very short term

We  have 5 clear impulsive waves dropping down.The corrective move looks almost done. The signal for one more move down is very reliable.

Good luck!

FTSE100 - Elliott Wave update

As I expected, the corrective move bounced up to the Fibonacci levels (61.8%). With last week's expected pullback, the immediate pressure has shifted on the downside. Trading with slight downside bias, probable dropping can be expected  next couple of days. The price action already made 5 impulsive waves downside about now. We still don't have strong SELL signals.

Good luck !

EUR/USD

This pair is diverging for weeks, and already painted 5 waves up. The correction reached 38.2% Fibonacci, giving me reason to open long position. If it is ordinary "zig-zag" the target is good as well.

EUR/JPY

           In 1 hour time frame the pair has made upside complex (w,x,y,x,z), containing few  "zig- zags".I noticed diverging indicators, which means the bounce up is done about now. There is a good opportunity to short the market. The nearest and most possible target is around 123.00 price.  

AEX - To the horses!!!

        As you've noticed, I prefer to analyze and trade not as "famous" instruments, as DJIA or SPX ets. Why? The answer is - there is a lot of "noise" there, because they are the most traded instruments in the world.
        Isn't the most important thing for us- the "market speculators", to find out where are the most reliable patterns, and signals to trade or invest in ??? . Most important thing for us is to make cash, alongside with satisfying our EGO, make us feel proud of our selfs.
        I can assure you, there are many not so "famous" instruments, who paint very clear and reliable wave patterns, and give reliable signals, worth to be traded. It doesn't make sense to follow, and chase only one instrument, wherever it goes.
      Few years ago I had such a bad experience, when I was chasing only one.Then I felt I had the duty to be in the GAME all the time. Suddenly one day I found my trading account empty. That is one of my stories.

My preferred count about AEX is 5 waves as an "expanded leading diagonal". Alt one is for a complex (W)(X)(Y). One"zig-zag" is completed and (C) wave of the second one is underway.
           The current move has corrected the pattern to 38.2%Fibonacci, which forced me to open short position. The red bear line stopped the price about now. The first target is around 301.50. If the price action breaks 296.36 resistance, the bears could lead  the price to 286.50, where is my second target.
                                                                Good luck!!!

      

DJIA - Elliott "right look" is missing

I don't know what is next, but current picture here doesn't look impulsive. In one of my posts  since 20 Dec, I mentioned that H&S target hasn't met yet. I still don't know if the price gonna chase that target from here. I need more confirmations to claim the bull rally.

AEX - Elliott Wave Analysis

I respect AEX Index a lot, because it's Dutch. Maybe, some of you don't know the fact, that the  word "BOURSE" comes from HOLLAND in 17th century, but this is other theme. Some day I'll tell you the whole story.
So AEX, like it's European fellows DAX and STOXX50 has painted something, which was worth to involve me in trades - "C" wave of the "zig -zag". Usually I don't trade corrections, except when I am in a good trading condition.The pattern I have labeled as (1) wave looks like an "expanded leading diagonal".
The price already met my first target and 38.2% Fibonacci, painting complex correction. I still don't know if the price going further to 61.8% Fibo or not. It is possible channel line back test as well, which will be close 61.8% retrace. I think better get out, and prepare my mind for bear dance.

100 free charts & analysis -fresh from EWI

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DAX-Elliott wave update

                                                                  
                                                                    Good luck!

STOXX 50- Elliott wave update

 STOXX50 index has formed very clear and reliable 5 wave impulsive pattern like  DAX. But the corrective waves structure little differs. According to the wave count. is expected (2) or (B) wave progression to at least 2.767=38.2% Fibonacci, or nearly 2.872= 61.8% Fibonacci level retracement. The situation gives us great opportunity  to take short position, chasing wave (3) or (c) ,and has reliability over 90%.  

DAX-Elliott wave update

                                                              Happy Valentine's Day !!!
Almost nothing changed since my last post about DAX. I still expect (2) or (B) wave progression to at least 5.655=38.2% Fibo, or 5.821=61.8%  Fibo. I missed 50.0% Fibo, because that level matches  resistance peak at 5.738. If the price action break that resistance, possibly the price will run after at least 61.8%Fibonacci.
Most probable reversal levels-5.666 and 5.796.